Central Asia s Vast Biofuel Opportunity

The recent discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted crucial oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers rarely step forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning atomic surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the opportunities of finding new reserves have the possible to toss federal governments' long-term preparation into turmoil.


Whatever the reality, increasing long term international needs seem certain to overtake production in the next decade, particularly given the high and rising expenses of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.


In such a scenario, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing costs drive this technology to the leading edge, among the richest potential production locations has actually been completely ignored by investors already Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to become a significant player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be obtained. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.


Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom because of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of natural gas.


Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually mostly prevented their capability to cash in on increasing worldwide energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their heightened requirement to generate winter electrical power has actually caused autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn severely impacting the farming of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.


What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually ended up being a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based on my conversations with Central Asian federal government officials, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser extent Astana for those hardy investors ready to wager on the future, especially as a plant indigenous to the area has currently proven itself in trials.


Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American companies currently investigating how to produce it in commercial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian carrier to try out flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month assessment of camelina's operational efficiency capability and prospective commercial viability.


As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another perk of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is squandered as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it a particularly great animals feed candidate that is simply now gaining acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well versus weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."


Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a new crop on the scene: historical proof shows it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of 3 centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.


Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a large range of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been determined to be in the 6-8 lb per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can produce issues in germination to accomplish an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.


Camelina's capacity could enable Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the nation's efforts at agrarian reform since attaining independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile industry. The process was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise purchased by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."


By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-sufficient in cotton; 5 years later on it had actually become a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.


Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of options Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million lots every year, which generates more than $1 billion while constituting roughly 60 percent of the country's tough currency income.


Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's instructions for Central Asian cotton production mainly bankrupted the area's scarcest resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet planners to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, resulting in the significant shrinkage of the rivers' final location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually diminished to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst eco-friendly disasters.


And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently described camelina's service model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."


Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering infrastructure and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the proficiency of America's land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel's market share will grow gradually; less certain is who will gain the benefits of establishing it as a feasible concern in Central Asia.


If the recent past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European financiers, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.


But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American investors have the academic knowledge, if they want to follow the Silk Road into developing a new market. Certainly anything that decreases water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the lot of their agrarian population will receive most careful factor to consider from Central Asia's governments, and farming and veggie oil processing plants are not just more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed quicker.


And jatropha's biofuel potential? Another story for another time.